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Showing posts from January, 2020

Wildfires Could Flip Amazon from Carbon Sponge to Carbon Source

Climate change and deforestation could lead to a more wildfires in the Amazon rain forest. The wildfires could burn up to the 16% of the wild forest. The effects of this could reduce the forest's ability to soak up carbon emissions. Instead, it might become a source of carbon emissions. Combustion from the trees and underbrush release carbon dioxide, and methane and other harmful gases could be released. Even if global emissions were to go down, the already ever-shifting climate will still cause a large number of wildfires. The only way to truly decrease the wildfires would be lessening deforestation. Hey guys here's an idea maybe like don't cut down so many trees? I'm not saying a full scale shut down of chopping down trees, but maybe just a slight cut back. Enough to not cause one of the places that absorbs the harmful gasses in the air into the opposite, a releasing point for the gasses. If we can find some healthy middle ground of cutting back both emissions and d...

Why These Australia Fires Are Like Nothing We've Seen Before

Sixteen million acres of land in Australia have been affected by the fires. The country has slowly been burning for the past three months. The fire now is largely contained, but the forest fire season isn't close to being over. The difference with the fires in Australia are that they are taking place in populated areas instead of other places. These fires burned eight times as much as the fires in 2018. At least 23 people have been killed due to the fires. Hundreds of millions of animals have been killed or starved by the fires. The smoke from the fire is covering places that havent been affected by the fires, creating some of the worst air conditions in the world. The smoke traveled to other parts of the world and are affectinig other places. The fires are also producing a lot of carbon emissions, which is making the greenhouse gasses increase in the atmosphere. Since the climate is changing, it's creating longer dry and hot periods, which is fueling the fire more. Most of the...

Every Day Matters: Guardian Stops Accepting Fossil Fuel Ads

The Guardian, a well known London newspaper, has stopped receiving advertisements from gas and oil companies.  The reason is that Guardian wants to get rid of any connection towards fossil fuels due to the negative effects it has on the climate.  This action has pushed for a difference by raising awareness about climate change and suggesting other media companies to do the same.  With the help of others, there may be a possibility in reducing climate change and stopping companies, like shell, that support fossil fuels.  This won't happen over night however, it is a good step in the right direction. Link

Trump Administration Moves to Ease Rules Against Killing Birds

Trump has removed laws to protect birds and reduced regulations for waterway pollution to allow more opportunity to get oil and natural resources. Not only are federal laws being lessened but the state laws are encouraged to be changed to allow for more business and jobs in the United States. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/30/climate/trump-bird-deaths.html I think that Trump should not be changing laws to protect wildlife, but I also understand why he is doing this so he can make more jobs and allow for the United States to use more of its own natural resources. I don't think this is a good idea, because the animals will definitely receive negative effects from this.

Carbon Capture: Solved by Software?

Many scenarios for a carbon free future often include the concept of carbon capture or conversion. this means that carbon is either turned into a usable material or buried far underground. The US government provides a incentive system in which business' get tax credit if they can stop carbon from entering the atmosphere. The government has developed partnerships with countless private business' in order to reduce emissions. Only issue is that it is difficult to move the carbon into 'storage'. The most viable option is burying it beneath the surface which many companies have started to do. A program has been developed to minimize costs for transportation which allows proper disposal of carbon and still allows the business' to make a profit. I find this super interesting and good, because everyone always expects the government to fix the problems that the people create, but instead, in this scenario, the government assists the process, not directs it. These incentiv...

A Relationship Between Severe Winter Weather and Arctic Warmth?

link Even though our planet is suffering through climate change, our winter weather is remaining steady and cold on the Northern Hemisphere. Scientists have been entertaining the idea of linking winter weather among the US, Europe, Asia, and the arctic, to which they found the arctic areas are warming 2 to 3 times faster than the other regions. Some studies believe that winter weather severity increase is due to chance and not the increase in arctic activity. The article discusses as to why the arctic is warming, not only from melting ice, but from water vapor and heat from lower latitudes. I think the articles importance and key goal is to inform readers that rising in temperatures in arctic areas is not only from melting ice caps, but that there are other problems arising to be attributed to the issue. Many people just like to pass these issues off with the simple answer of global warming and don't think there is anything they can do, but the problem is rooted much deeper and ...

Chernobyl Today?

April 26, 1986, a safety test done on the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant in Ukraine went horribly wrong, resulting in a reactor exploding and spreading over one-hundred radioactive elements into immediate surrounding cities. Citizens were evacuated only thirty-six hours after the explosion, forced to leave behind their belongings and family pets; efforts have been made to rescue stray dogs and cats that could be decontaminated and relocated to a safer location. Almost two-hundred thousand people were evacuated from the site, believing that they would only be gone for a few days, leaving behind everything they ever owned besides the clothing on their backs. Chernobyl is expected to be inhabitable for thousands of years to come, because although many dangerous elements were quickly eliminated, but most still remain. I think that nuclear power plants should not have civilization close enough to become contaminated by radiation, but if so, there needs to be better evacuation protocols set...

Rock Salt Could be Contaminating Your Water With Lead!

In ocean county, a river that provides water for over 85,000 people is having a large increase in salt in the water. And it is effecting more than just the water taste. The salt wears down the lead sauntering in the pipes which puts tiny lead particles in the water that you drink. I think this is dangerous because this is exactly what happend in the city of Flint. Cities thinking that using salt is doing all good when in reality it may be causing people to get lead poisoning.

Wildfires in Australia

   As most people know, there has been a recent out break of devastating brush fires that are destroying the homes of millions of animals in Australia. According to Adam Voiland, there has been activity with the clouds and smoke in Australia, that are very similar to those that occur after a volcanic eruption! The clouds that have been appearing are called Pyrocumulus clouds. These clouds require high burning temperatures, but after they have created a certain amount of condensation build up, it can cause full on thunderstorms. While it is not good that these fires are burning and destroying land, the effects of the clouds, can almost be beneficial in that they are causing rain to occur which could potentially help to put some of the fires out naturally. Source:  https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/146125/explosive-fire-activity-in-australia

Greasy Riders: Why truckers are turning to cooking oil

Aiden Sherman APES 6th pd. New technology in bio fuel recycling by Neutral Fuels has lead to a decrease in Co2 emissions in cities such as Dubai.  This is achieved through the reuse of cooking oil, which is combined with methanol in a what is called a cyclone reactor, resulting in biodiesel.  In addition to this, biodiesel will work the identically to diesel, meaning no further conversion to the oil or engine is necessary.  Nearly 100 percent of the oil used in the process is recycled, making it almost completely carbon-neutral.  A considerable amount of cooking oil is needed to make enough fuel to support large fleets of trucks, which is why Neutral Fuels has become suppliers to restaurant chains such as McDonald's UAE.  The cooking oil which would otherwise go to waste is now converted into biodiesel for shipping trucks.  Currently, Neutral Fuels is recycling 10 percent of all waste oil in Dubai and has plans for expansion into cities in other countries...

E.P.A is allowing cities to dump sewage into rivers

The Environmental Protection Agency has made it easier for cities to dump raw sewage into rivers because cities have complained that it is too expensive to meet federal requirements to upgrade sewer systems. When the cities upgrade their sewage systems many directly release untreated waste into the the waterways and when it heavily rains it causes major problems because climate change worsens when rainstorms intensify.  This has gained the attention of the Trump administration who wants to renegotiate the agreement by cutting back 95 environmental rules that they think are too costly for industries and taxpayers. Officials in many cities are pleased with Donald Trump's actions but environmentalists think the changes he is making is threatening people's safety by allowing  pathogens and chemicals to be released into rivers and then back into streets during a storm. Becky Hammer the deputy director for federal water policy at the Natural Resources Defense Council says there are ...

Ancient Sites Now Destroyed by Australian Fires

The forest fires of Australia have burnt down many trees and forest areas, but the fires have now also destroyed sites of ancient indigenous communities, where vital knowledge of movement of these indigenous groups occurred.  10-million hectares (25 million acres) of vegetative land has been destroyed by these forest fires, especially in culturally-rich areas such as eastern Victoria, where the Gunaikurnai people lived. Much of the art, including culturally-modified trees for traditional uses, rock art and engravings, stone-tool sites, and grinding stone sites all have been affected by these forest fires.  Places dating back to 20,000 years ago, when the last ice age occurred, have been destroyed, but the positive side to the fires is that unknown land has been uncovered by the destruction of thick vegetation, leaving new places for archaeologists to discover. The fires are truly devastating, especially now that indigenous sites are being  destroyed. The fires need ...

NASA Tracks Wildfires From Above to Aid Firefighters Below

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NASA Tracks Wildfires From Above to Aid Firefighters Below linky \ Every day during the late spring and early fall, two planes take off in the Western US and head toward an active wildfire. They can locate as many as 30 fires in one night. They fly 10,000 ft above the ground, but somehow the smoke finds a way to enter their cabin, and burns their eyes and throats. They fly directly above the flames and fly in a pattern similar to one of mowing grass. Most of the time, the Earth-observing satellites and planes are the first to spot a forest fire. Satellites are limited to pixels, so it limits NASA when it comes to finding the exact location of the main part of the fire. So, instruments on the Forest Service aircraft help. These new technologies and advancements in fire detecting services becoming more advances is a great development that could save many lives. However, I hope they are putting as much money into preventing the forest fires as they are into putting them out, becaus...

The cure for cancer?

January Blog Post British scientists say they have accidentally discovered a new type of immune cell which may help in developing a therapy to treat all cancers. They call it a "one-size-fits-all" cancer treatment  The CAR-T that is currently used widely is only  good   for a few types of cancers, and not for solid tumors, solid tumors make up the majority of cancers. So this is not the best cancer treatment for most people, But the newly discovered T-cells have this thing called a T-cell receptor, which “recognizes and kills most human cancer types, while ignoring healthy cells.” Because of that reason exactly cancer can be treated more effectively resulting in more lives saved.  I believe that this is a breakthrough and something that should be looked into for the united states. This is something previously thought to never be possible. But with this discovery it has been proven wrong and now gives hope to the cancer community in possibly being able to overcome...

Increase in River Waste Dumping

In light of the Trump administration changing economical laws, cities now have permission and plan to increase the amount of sewage dumped into rivers over the following years. Cities see this as a large benefit as the laws now allow them to be much more flexible with how waste is treated. However, environmental scientist worry about how it may effect ecosystems and future ecological dumps. Washington DC in an effort to move away from this is digging excess sewer tunnels under the city to store these extra dumps but these are believed to risk health problems, flooding, and cause degrading stability below the city. Overall, these new regulations may cause more longer term damage then they help. While an ease of disposal has been brought to light in front of the cities it does pose a much larger problem to the ecosystem. As a whole i think the bill poses a large worry to the current global scale of pollution. Washington is not the only city planning on increasing its river dumping and ...

More rain and less snow means increased flood risk

A Stanford study reveals that there has been more rain than snow this winter and it results in more floods.   An analysis of over 400 watersheds from 1980-2016 shows that floods created by rainfall can be more than 2.5x as large as those driven by snow melt.  Due to global temperature increases there has been more rain than snow this winter and it is definitely having a great impact on the environment.   This relates to our class topics because we are currently discussing the human impact on the planet through various things such as deforestation, industries, the fishing industry, etc.  All of which have a great impact on the Earth.  The rising industry causes pollution which then causes global temperatures to rise and due to human impact and global temperature rising there is more rain which is creating exponential flooding worldwide.   link

Trump Removes Pollution Controls on Streams and Wetlands

The Trump administration has recently finalized taking away environmental protections on wetlands, streams and groundwater, by repealing President Obama's "Waters of the United States" regulation. This will benefit some farmers and fossil fuel producers. Since Trumps administration is getting rid of these regulations, it results in climate change occurring at an increasing rate and more mining and drilling taking place. This change will allow landowners to dump pollutants in many different waterways. I disagree completely with the Trump administration on getting rid of these environmental regulations. I disagree with this move because we are going through a terrible climate crisis already and by removing these regulations the climate will get worse and the Earth will be destroyed even more. I believe that the whole world needs to come together and start making a better effort at fixing our climate issue, not allowing it to become worse like Trump is doing. link

Dust Bacteria could be protecting us (Brogan Coffin)

Scientists have recently been performing research on the spread of antibodies and it is now speculated that bacteria that enters the home through windows could develop a resistance due to antibodies that leave our bodies on skin. viruses that become resistant to antibodies has always been a scary thought and threat but now that this speculation has occurred it opens the door to a whole new world of fear. If antibodies can in fact be spread and immunity grown then diseases could gain a whole new level of strength. This scary thought is still in the stages of research but scientists say that something as small as changing the sanitizer you use could have major influences on bacteria's resistance. I think that while this is incredibly scary to think about its also really cool. The fact that nature can evolve through something as simple as dust particles in order to combat itself is truly amazing and shows the pure power that mother nature actually has. https://www.livescience.com/...

Micro Plastic Pollution

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January Blog Post In the past years, humanity has been producing so much plastic material that micro forms of it are showing up everywhere. Micro plastics are now in our food and water supplies that we use every day. Plastics can take up to 450 years to degrade, so you can imagine the possible damage this plastic could be doing to ourselves and the environment. These micro plastics are washing up on almost every shore and affect the local animal life negatively. I see micro plastics as a problem that we cannot avoid unless we completely void the production of plastic products. Plastic is in almost everything we use today. It's kind of scary how common the substance is nowadays. It is even in the products you wouldn't expect it seems like. Simple actions such as taking a shower every day or washing your clothes can lead to the production of plastic pollution. Click Here for Article

Funny Antarctica particles can defy physics (Brogan Coffin)

Since 2016 there has been 3 cases of ultra high energy particles being blasted up from the ground in Antarctica. Most known types of particles are unable to pass through the Earth's crust due to its thickness and ability to ping off of the crust. This implies that there is a new type of of particle is responsible for the pings through the ice. These particles containing high energy are especially strange due to most particles that can pass through the earth are nearly massless. Scientists say that it could be possible that there is an acceleration source in the earth but that it is incredibly unlikely. For the time being our technology is not currently strong enough to detect the true source of these pngs so for now we will have to wait until the next generation of technology. I think this is wickedly cool, the fact that physics can be flipped on it's head like this is truly amazing. The world as we know it is such a fragile thing and even minor discoveries like this can com...

Earth's oldest asteroid strike linked to 'big thaw'

Scientists have discovered that the first asteroid to hit the Earth struck at  Yarrabubba, in the outback of Western Australia. It happened around the same time as the end of a global deep freeze known as "Snowball Earth." Researchers determined that the crater is around 2.229 billion years old, meaning that it is roughly 200 million years older than the impact of the asteroid we originally believed to be Earth's first impact.  This is pretty cool because its like extremely hard to imagine a time when the Earth was completely frozen. And also, an asteroid helped to thaw the Earth out.  https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/01/200122100546.htm
This article explains how due to various effects humans have cause on the environment, we could possibly lose our coral reefs. Climate change is one that should be obvious to anyone as it is affecting just about every ecosystem on earth. Climate change leads to less oxygen in the water, sea level rising, and the acidification of the water, which all harm marine ecosystems. Another huge one is over fishing. Lots of commercial fishing companies use techniques that destroy entire ecosystems. In my opinion is is very easy to fix these problems in order to save something so important. Coral reefs are not just something that is cool to look at but, they also provide essential habitat to many marine creature, meaning they would go extinct without it. The reefs are just one example of how human's are carelessly destroying our planet. https://www.commondreams.org/news/2020/01/22/warning-environmental-ruin-and-it-human-tragedy-report-details-triple-threat-coral

Lamborghini Terzo Millennio

Lamborghini at the end of last year released a game changing super car. The Tzero Millennio has 4 in wheel electric motors compared to out of wheel motors. The car also has super capacitors compared to regular batteries. Super capacitors compared to batteries can deliver a higher voltage quicker and can take more recharges than normal electric car batteries. The Tezero is monitored by an on board health system. The carbon fiber exterior is monitored by this system and when a sensor detects a crack or dent the carbon fiber, comprised of a series of nano-tubes, will repair itself.  These innovations above are pushing the boundaries of technology in our world. The super capacitors if effective will allow other electric vehicles to be more practical and be more environmentally conscious since the batteries will take longer to go bad. The self repairing system, if available at a reasonable price, I believe will allow the possibility for use in other fields like medical. Overall, the ...

Catastrophic Australian Brush fires derail research

As of January 15 brush fires in certain parts of southern Australian have started to subside and biologist have begun being escorted back into the area. The scientist aimed to save a fish from extinction in the case the fires continue pass the point of redemption. 142 fish were saved from the wild for captivity breeding but it now seems they are extinct form the wild. The fires have caused this type of damage to millions of animals as it currently stands and as this continues scientific research is being set back immensely with such serve damages to the ecosystem and the animals that live there. The fires have set back research on living patterns, ecological damage, plant life, and many other types of biological research that were once abundant in Australia due to its environment and large ecosystem of creatures. The damage done to Australia is extremely surprising. With current standings if something is not done the damage may be irreversible. I believe that while the fires cannot b...

Five Environmental Consequences of Australia’s Fires

Currently, 12.35 million acres of land in Australia are burning, posing a tremendous threat to the environment. One, it threatens wildlife in Australia, considering the fires have already killed about a billion organisms and many species in Australia are endemic to the continent. Two, fire debris is posing a threat to the water supplies, which threatens fish and aquatic species due to rain runoff from the severe amount of ash left from the fires. Three, animal species are being threatened because ecosystems may grow back differently, forcing the species' to adapt to new, post-fire conditions. Four, smoke is currently circumnavigating due to global wind patterns and is drastically raising carbon dioxide emissions. Five, the fires are causing soot rain to fall on New Zealand, threatening the melting of New Zealand's glaciers. https://eos.org/articles/five-environmental-consequences-of-australias-fires

Australia’s Bushfires Have Likely Devastated Wildlife—and the Impact Will Only Get Worse

In late December 2019 wildfires began breaking out in Australia. Skies are turning blood red and families are in boats to escape fires on the shores.  Since the fires broke out it is estimated that 800 million animals have been effected by the fires. Many animals in the region are used to fires because they have been a normal part of the Australian landscape for thousands of years, but the size of these fires are to large for the animals to cope with.  Some of these animals are finding shelter in rock crevices or burrows. I believe that these fires need to be somewhat controlled in whatever way possible.  Obviously we will not be able to put all the fires out but we need to control them in whatever way possible to save animals and the animals habitats. LINK

Delivery Vehicles Increasingly Choke Cities with Pollution

Cities are suffering from more congestion and pollution because of a growing number of delivery vehicles choking the streets.  A report from the World Economic Forum shows that over the next decade the number of delivery vehicles in the 100 largest cities will increase 36%.  Congestion will also increase by 21%.  I believe that this could be slowed but never stopped.  Delivery drives have become a major part of our lives and it would be nearly impossible to go back to living without this. LINK

Earth was stressed before dinosaur extinction

New evidence gleaned from Antarctic seashells confirms that Earth was already unstable before the asteroid impact that wiped out the dinosaurs. Long story short, there was a massive surge in carbon in the oceans. It is believed that this was due to long-term eruptions from the Deccan Traps, a 200,000 square mile volcanic province in modern day India.  SO, I think we can all agree that we're all gonna die from an asteroid soon! https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/12/191211145632.htm

White House wants to change environmental rules to speed up highway projects, pipelines and more

Summary: The White House wants to make projects for example, highways, airports, and mines easier to build with fewer regulations. This would affect the NEPA (National Environmental Policy Act), which assesses the impact the project would have on the environment. On January 1st the NEPA has been around for 50 years. Arguments in the article against NEPA is that it'll slow projects, derail projects, and increases costs. This is one of the most forceful efforts by the Trump administration to loosen the restraints on protection of the environment. This will make it easier to place pipes down and build without much resistance, where today it is controversial. But the Trump White House Council on Environmental Quality has pointed out that it has not been updated since 1978. Reaction: I disagree completely with weakening NEPA or making it loose on its control on construction projects. The act was made for a reason to protect the environment from projects that could destroy the lan...

Climate change may make Australia’s wildfires more common

Australia’s fire season normally peaks in January, but as of January 2020, wildfires have been raging in the country for four months. So far, the fires have destroyed more than 1,300 homes, and burned about 6 million acres and killed at least 24 people. Those wildfires are being fueled by a combination of record high temperatures, long-term drought, low air and soil moisture going into the normal fire season, and human negligence. Climate change could make such extreme, deadly blazes three times as common by the end of the century. Neglect of not only the environment, but of the effects of it as well, if something isn't done, Australia could all be a blaze in the near future. https://www.sciencenews.org/article/how-climate-change-may-make-australia-wildfires-more-common

Birds Are Migrating Earlier Each Spring

A study released by Nature Climate Change shows that rising temperatures are effecting bird migrations. The migrations are happening earlier and earlier each spring. The study analyzed millions of radar scans to differentiate between migrating birds and weather systems, and it showed there was a clear relation between the two. But the rising temperatures causing the birds to migrate earlier effects a lot of other species across the country too. Their earlier migration also influences the growth of plants and availability of food. If the birds continue to migrate early, there will not be effective timing of spring vegetation blooms or abundance of insects which will effect the survival of these birds. If global warming continues this will have a negative effect on these birds migration and plenty of other species. Global warming is a serious problem that needs to be addressed properly. There have been clear signs from wildlife across the country that the rising temperatures are negati...
The fires in Australia are destroying the terrain and have killed nearly half a billion animals. These fires are destroying all of the vegetation in Australia leaving these animals with no home and killing them or leaving them burned. Animals are suffering and are literally surrounded by fire and many people are fearing extinction or endangerment of some animals. This is a very scary thing that a natural drought could occur to the level like this. This is scary to think that future generations will have to face these challenges we leave behind and that they will not be able to see some of these animals in the wild. https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/07/australia/australia-fire-wildlife-deaths-intl-hnk-scli/index.html

Australia Wildfires

The well known wildfires in Australia are still burning strong after months of burning.These fires have killed at minimum twenty-five people across Australia. In addition to human death toll a devastating half a billion animals are estimated to have perished in the flames. The habitats of animals such as Koala's, Kangaroos, Wallaby have been reduced to ash. More than a third of these animals habitats have been destroyed across the continent. The homes of the citizens have burned to the ground leaveing thousands of people homeless across the many Australian states. The carbon emissions from these fires is astronomical and the hot smoke and ash is causing New Zealand glaciers to melt. As in other parts of the world these melting glaciers will add to global warming and the rising sea levels. Its extremely important to be educated in world events such as these because they impact not only the country they occur in but the whole world. These fires are a threat to animals, humans, and ...

Australian Wild Fires

January 5, 2020 This fire season for Australia has been one of the worst fire seasons in Australia's history. So far 15 have been left dead, millions of acres are burned, and houses are being destroyed. The hot and dry weather Australia has been experiencing is nothing new for Australia. An average high for Australia in December was recorded at 107 degrees Fahrenheit. This extreme heat is following the driest spring on record for Australia. Thousands of residents who live in southeastern Australia have been evacuated to the shorelines where military ships and air crafts are delivering food and water to the residents. Not only are these fires affecting the people living in Australia but they affect the animals there as well. It is estimated that half a billion of the animals have been killed with plenty more wounded or burnt. Many pages have been created for donations to help heal the animals back to health and to contribute money to fight the fires. In a time like this it is cruc...

Fishy Trick Lures Life Back to Coral Reefs

The article talks first about the natural sustenance that marine life provide for coral reefs. Then it expands to talk about how the destruction of reefs doesn't have any apparent natural solution. In order to test a new artificial solution, a dummy reef is assembled and aquatic sounds of life underwater, from shrimp snapping to croaking fish. Many other reefs were assembled without the sound amplification and the results were quite different. The reef with the sounds grew quicker and attracted many more creatures. Although the method seems very simple, it warns of false advertising, and sometimes can lead to the deaths of those attracted to the reef if the environment isn't spot on. I find this super interesting because this is a civilian solution to a problem, which is what we need more of. In modern day, the common mindset is to make every problem a government problem, one that they have to fix. I think these civilian approaches to environmental concerns is the best way to...

Countries need to drastically cut emissions

A new report shows that the world needs to drastically cut its emissions if it wants to meet the Paris Climate agreement's previous goal of limiting the warming to 2 degrees Celsius. The US's participation in the climate agreement is up in the air as President Trump has started proceedings to withdraw from said agreement as early as November 2020. The current emissions may already cause a 1.5 degree increase, so major changes need to be made. Smaller countries which are majorly affected by the emissions will try to focus on the seven major economic powerhouses that make up over 50% of the emissions. Those countries have the ability to change their emissions, but it will have to be a drastic change in the structure of their energy source. The issue that I have with most people is that they believe, and rightfully so, that global warming will not affect them drastically within their lifetime. It may not even make a drastic change in my lifetime, but if nothing is changed now ir...